This paper weighs up the income and jobs generated by the heavy industry proposed in the Coega
Industrial Development Zone (IDZ) project against those that would be generated by
agriculture and aquaculture projects in the Coega River basin. It shows that a ‘conservative
scenario’ heavy industry Coega IDZ option generates within South Africa almost three times as
much income but less than half the number of jobs as a combined agro-aquaculture one (and
about two times as much income if negative income effects are added in), and requires about 45
times as much capital. In addition heavy industry may crowd other industries in the area. The conclusions drawn are:
• that the opportunity cost of the Coega IDZ and Port Project is high, especially in terms of
sustainable employment,
• that government should consider more carefully what the most efficient ways are of
exploiting the natural capital of the area (the alluvial soils, the coastline and the supplies of
fresh water),
• that if conflicts of interest between private sector interests are likely, there are dangers in
development initiatives based on private-public partnerships, and
• that the heavy industry currently proposed for the Coega IDZ may limit the scope for future
industrial developments in the area, by using up much of the ‘safe’ waste assimilating
capacity of the air
