Over the last 20 years several countries have made changes in their Agricultural Knowledge and Innovation Systems (AKIS): institutes for applied research have been put on output‐finance with reduced budgets or have been merged into larger structures (Finland, Italy), sometimes into universities (NL, Dk). Incentives to publish have been strengthened in universities. Private advise is now available all over Europe and competes with public extension. How will or should this develop in the future? The SCAR strategic working group AKIS did a foresight study and identified three scenario’s for AKIS: High Tech, Self‐ Organisation and Collapse. Recommendations are made to make AKIS more robust.