@article{Baker:243147,
      recid = {243147},
      author = {Baker, Erin and Bosetti, Valentina and Salo, Ahti},
      title = {Finding Common Ground when Experts Disagree: Belief  Dominance over Portfolios of Alternatives},
      address = {2016-07-31},
      number = {839-2016-55900},
      series = {MITP},
      pages = {35},
      month = {Jul},
      year = {2016},
      abstract = {We address the problem of choosing a portfolio of policies  under “deep uncertainty.” We introduce the idea of belief  dominance as a way to derive a set of non-dominated  portfolios and robust individual alternatives. Our approach  departs from the tradition of providing a single  recommended portfolio; rather, it derives a group of good  portfolios. The belief dominance concept allows us to  synthesize multiple expert- or model- based beliefs by  uncovering the range of alternatives that are intelligent  responses to the range of beliefs. This goes beyond  solutions that are optimal for any specific set of beliefs  to uncover other defensible solutions that may not  otherwise be revealed. We illustrate our approach using an  important problem in the climate change and energy policy  context: choosing among clean energy technology R&D  portfolios. We demonstrate how the belief dominance concept  can reveal portfolios and alternatives that would otherwise  remain uncovered.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/243147},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.243147},
}