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Abstract

This study evaluates the economics of conservation tillage (chisel till and no till) and examines how climate change will likely affect it. We use data from long-term experimental plots in Indiana to estimate how corn and soybean yields respond to weather patterns under alternative tillage practices. Yield functions are coupled with random draws of weather variables to construct distributions describing the probability that conservation tillage will result in higher profits than more intensive tillage, under current and future climatic regimes. Results suggest that, in our study area, projected climate change will make conservation tillage more attractive.

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