@article{Arora:235895,
      recid = {235895},
      author = {Arora, Gaurav and Feng, Hongli and Hennessy, David A. and  Anderson, Christopher J.},
      title = {Crop Competitiveness and Future Climate Change in the  Northern Great Plains},
      address = {2016},
      number = {333-2016-14420},
      pages = {51},
      year = {2016},
      abstract = {We evaluate the regional-level agricultural impacts of  climate change in the Northern Great Plains. We first  estimate a non-linear yield-weather relationship for all  major commodities in the area: corn, soybeans, spring wheat  and alfalfa. We separately identify benevolent and harmful  temperature thresholds for each commodity, and control for  severe-to-extreme dry/wet conditions in our yield models.  Analyzing all major commodities in a region extends the  existing literature beyond just one crop, most typically  corn yields. Alfalfa is particularly interesting since it  is a legume-crop that is substitutable with grasses as  animal feed and rotated with other row-crops for  nitrogen-fixation of soils. Our model includes  trend-weather and soil-weather interaction terms that  extend the existing yield-weather models in the literature.  Results suggest that temporal adaptations have not  mitigated the negative impacts of weather stressors in the  past, and that the spatial soil profile only weakly  influences weather impacts on crop yields. We estimate  yield-weather elasticities and find that historical weather  patterns in the region have benefited corn and soybeans  (spring wheat) the most (least). We expand our analysis to  formally evaluate the role of short-run weather  fluctuations in determining land-use decisions. We utilize  decomposed crop yield estimates due to trend and weather in  order to model crop acreage shares. Our preliminary results  suggest that short-run weather fluctuations are an  important factor for decisions on soybeans and spring wheat  shares, however only yield trends drive corn shares.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/235895},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.235895},
}