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Abstract

By using panel VAR model and directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), we explore the dynamic interdependences among aid, development, and conflict. We construct a worldwide panel dataset of 79 countries over the period 1995-2010. Although foreign aid is sensitively responsive to the conflict or development shock, its effects on reducing conflict and improving development are largely relied on the wealth level and conflict proneness of the recipient country. We find that foreign aid only mitigates conflict in middle income developing countries, and enhances the development of the poor and conflict-prone countries.

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