The aim of the study was to determine the dynamics of changes in wheat yield in Poland and the European Union in 2030 and 2050. The analysis was performed using the model CAPRI (The Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact) for the reference of socio-economic scenario. Based on the CAPRI model in 2030 , an average increase of 24% in wheat yield is projected in the 27 European Union countries compared to 2010. In 2050, the average wheat yield will be by 40% higher than in 2010. In Poland, an increase of wheat yields by 37 and 61%, respectively, is forecasted for 2030 and 2050. The increase of yield will be possible due to the implementation of new wheat varieties adapted to adverse soil and climatic conditions, as well as the organizational and economic changes in agricultural holdings.