The aim of the study was to compare the efficiency of milk production in Poland and the European Union in the years of 2030 and 2050 applying the CAPRI model and trend analysis. The source of the data for the analysis was the CSO database containing data on the average performance of cows in Poland and cows in barns that are under control, and the FADN database. CAPRI model analysis was performed according to the reference scenario (SSP2) for medium and high milk yield. According to the CAPRI model in 2030 and 2050, the average milk yield in Poland will increase by 22 and 28% compared to 2010. On the basis of trend analysis, in 2030 for the average data from the CSO index of growth is 41%, and 46 and 60%, respectively for PFHBiPM and FADN.