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Abstract
Total world demand for tuna has increased rapidly
over the 1956-66 period. These increases in demand are
due to rising populations and expanding per capita income
in the principal tuna-consuming countries such as the United
States, Japan and the E.E.C. countries. This paper attempts
to discover the relationship between per capita tuna consumption,
tuna prices and real per capita income for the
nine leading tuna-consuming countries. On the basis of
these relationships the world demand for tuna is projected
to the year 1990. When projected increases in population
and standard of living (i.e., per capita income) are accounted
for over the next twenty years, it is estimated that tuna
consumption will rise from 1,320,000metric tons in 1966
to approximately 5,000,000 metric tons in 1990 assuming the
existence of 1966 prices throughout the projection period
and available world supplies. If the maximum sustainable
yield of tuna on a world basis is no more than 2,600,000
metric tons and additional increase in world production is
likely from only the skipjack resource, it is very likely
that cost and prices will rise and demand will be reduced.
Assuming a world price elasticity of unity for tuna, it is
estimated that by 1990, world demand and supply will be
equal at an ex vessel price of over 38 cents per, pound and
consumption of about 2,100,000 metric tons under existing
technology of harvesting the tuna.resource. In this event,
technological change through gear and biological research
may bring about an expansion of the world tuna fishery and
reduced prices. However, this research and development must
be accompanied by a vigorous fishei7 management program
to prevent the destruction of.the resource. Without thib
fishery management program,.technological change can
only bring long run negative returns to the world tunaconsuming
and producing nations.