000021487 001__ 21487
000021487 005__ 20180121173646.0
000021487 037__ $$a371-2016-19137
000021487 041__ $$aen
000021487 245__ $$aFORECASTING ACCURACY, RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS AND MARKET EFFICIENCY IN THE US BEEF CATTLE INDUSTRY
000021487 260__ $$c1999
000021487 269__ $$a1999
000021487 270__ $$mschaef43@pilot.msu.edu$$pSchaefer,   Matthew P.
000021487 300__ $$a16
000021487 336__ $$aConference Paper/ Presentation
000021487 446__ $$aEnglish
000021487 490__ $$aSelected Paper
000021487 520__ $$aRecent studies have tested whether futures prices respond to U.S. Department of Agriculture inventory reports in accordance with the efficient markets hypothesis.  These studies use survey forecasts to identify the anticipated and unanticipated information contained in a report.  However, this approach implicitly assumes that survey forecasts be an unbiased and efficient predictor of the data in the USDA report.  Furthermore, previous studies have not tested the bias and efficiency properties of USDA preliminary estimates as predictors of final revised USDA figures.  This study introduces a framework for conducting tests of the efficient markets hypothesis in the presence of biased and inefficient survey forecasts, and preliminary USDA estimates that are biased and inefficient predictors of final revised figures.  The approach is applied to the US beef cattle industry and results are quite different from those obtained using conventional analysis.
000021487 650__ $$aFinancial Economics
000021487 650__ $$aLivestock Production/Industries
000021487 650__ $$aProduction Economics
000021487 6531_ $$amarket efficiency
000021487 6531_ $$arational expectations
000021487 6531_ $$asurvey forecasts
000021487 6531_ $$aCattle On-Feed Report
000021487 700__ $$aSchaefer, Matthew P.
000021487 700__ $$aMyers, Robert J.
000021487 8564_ $$s74110$$uhttps://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/21487/files/sp99sc05.pdf
000021487 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/21487
000021487 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:21487$$pGLOBAL_SET
000021487 912__ $$nMade available in DSpace on 2007-03-07T21:45:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1
sp99sc05.pdf: 74110 bytes, checksum: 0ccec02470240d1a958233a74f87c3cd (MD5)
  Previous issue date: 1999
000021487 982__ $$gAmerican Agricultural Economics Association>1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN
000021487 980__ $$a371