@article{Moeckel:207283,
      recid = {207283},
      author = {Moeckel, Rolf and Wardell, Erin and Weidner, Tara},
      title = {Creating a Statewide Commodity Flow Forecast from National  FAF2 Data},
      address = {2010-03},
      number = {1430-2016-118682},
      pages = {23},
      year = {2010},
      abstract = {As part of the planning effort leading up to the  development of a statewide Freight Plan, the Oregon  Department of Transportation (ODOT) developed a statewide  commodity flow forecast. The methodology used to create  this Oregon Commodity Flow Forecast (Oregon CFF), aimed to  address the limitations of existing forecasts –  inconsistent and separate databases for different modes,  lack of transparency in data and assumptions, and data gaps  – in a consistent methodology based on national and local  data sources, and be able to meet the tight timelines. This  paper will document the work done by the consulting team  and the agency to create a statewide forecast that  addressed these limitations. The project team decided to  build on the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Freight  Analysis Framework (FAF2) national commodity flow forecast.  The FAF2 commodity flow forecast was chosen because FAF2 is  national in scope, highly regarded in terms of capturing  interstate and international flows, uses a relatively  recent base year (2002), and provided a quick way to  complete a forecast in time for the Oregon Freight Plan  work. FAF2 provides freight flows in tons or dollar value  between 130 FAF2 regions encompassing the US for the year  2002 plus forecasts from 2010 to 2035 in five year  increments. The desired final product for the Oregon CFF  was a county-county level flow forecast for truck, rail,  marine, air, and pipeline modes. In order to transform the  coarse FAF2 zone flows (2 zones cover Oregon) into counties  within Oregon, the data was disaggregated. Since the FAF2  dataset contains the whole United States, flows with at  least one trip ends within Oregon were disaggregated from  FAF2 zones to Oregon counties. Each of the freight modes  was disaggregated separately. In the case of truck flows,  this was done based on county employment and IMPLAN  inter-industry coefficients of what commodities are made  and used by each industry. For rail flows, the FAF2 flows  were compared to the Surface Transportation Board‘s Rail  Carload Waybill data set which contains county level detail  of origin and destinations. The overall numbers were found  to be comparable, so the Waybill data for 2002 was used as  the base, and the FAF2
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growth rates were applied to  forecast the future years. The other modes relied on local  data to allocate FAF2 flows to specific Oregon facilities  (rail stations, airports, marine ports, or pipeline  terminals), including US Corps of Engineers Waterborne  Commerce data and the Oregon Energy Report. Zones outside  of Oregon were aggregated from FAF2 zones to ―Other  Domestic‖ and ―Other International‖ categories. Special  consideration was made for air mail and fish commodities  using the knowledge of industry experts. Using the Rail  Waybill data and other sources required a conversion in  commodity categories, because FAF2 uses the Standard  Classification of Transported Goods (SCTG)TG and other  sources used the Standard Transportation Commodity Code  classification. Once the data was disaggregated to  represent county-county commodity flows, the FAF2 future  year forecast numbers were adjusted down to account for the  economic downturn that occurred after the forecast was  prepared. One of the challenges of working with the FAF2  data is the inability to adjust or quantify the FAF2  underlying economic forecasts, particularly the optimistic  economic conditions and low fuel price assumptions. These  poses some limitations that must be taken into account. The  Oregon CFF 2002 to 2035 forecast provides a basis for  understanding the primary freight movements today and in  the future under existing conditions. In several instances  circumstances are likely to change, and the detail and  transparency provided in Oregon CFF can provide a starting  point for evaluating such changes.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/207283},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.207283},
}