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The Open Aviation Area Treaty (OAA) between the European Union (EU) and the United States (U.S.) went into effect on March 30, 2008. Faced with an economic slowdown and unprecedented increase in fuel costs, factors which were uncertain a priori, the projected effects of OAA have been dampened compared to previous projections. In this paper, a framework is offered that combines a parametric approach with uncertainty in demand estimation and forecasts. This framework is then used to generate probabilistic forecasts for U.S.-EU passenger traffic for the period of 2008–2015.


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