Studies have shown that income distribution effects and urbanization are crucial for providing more precise long-term food demand projections, especially in rapid-growing economies like Vietnam. Using a fitted QUAIDS model, this study projects at-home food demand of Vietnamese households to 2020 and 2030, taking into account alternative growth rates in food expenditures, food prices and urbanization. Food consumed in a household is divided into 7 major groups including rice, pork, meat and fish, vegetables and fruits, sugar, drinks, and miscellaneous food. Results showed that the responsiveness of demand for foods varies across income classes and between urban and rural areas, most notably in the case of rice. Projections under alternative scenarios also showed that the budget shares of rice decline significantly while those for meat and fish, drinks and most remarkably, miscellaneous food group, increase at higher levels of food expenditures. Interestingly, the effect of urbanization is more remarkable for rice while it is quite modest for the remaining food groups.


Downloads Statistics

Download Full History