000205311 001__ 205311
000205311 005__ 20210819131454.0
000205311 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.22004/ag.econ.205311
000205311 037__ $$a330-2016-13921
000205311 041__ $$aeng
000205311 084__ $$aO13
000205311 084__ $$aH56
000205311 084__ $$aD74
000205311 245__ $$aClimate Change, Agricultural Production and Civil Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines
000205311 260__ $$c2015
000205311 269__ $$a2015
000205311 270__ $$mbencrost@illinois.edu$$pCrost,   Benjamin
000205311 270__ $$mclaire.duquennois@ucdenver.edu$$pDuquennois,   Claire
000205311 270__ $$mjfelter@stanford.edu$$pFelter,   Joseph H.
000205311 270__ $$mdaniel.rees@ucdenver.edu$$pRees,   Daniel I.
000205311 300__ $$a40
000205311 336__ $$aConference Paper/ Presentation
000205311 520__ $$aClimate change is predicted to affect global rainfall patterns, but there is mixed evidence with regard to the effect of rainfall on civil conflict. Even among researchers who argue that rainfall reduces civil conflict, there is disagreement as to the underlying mechanism. Using data from the Philippines for the period 2001-2009, we exploit seasonal variation in the relationship between rainfall and agricultural production to explore the connection between rainfall and civil conflict. In the Philippines, above-average rainfall during the wet season is harmful to agricultural production, while above-average rainfall during the dry season is beneficial. We show that the relationship between rainfall and civil conflict also exhibits seasonality, but in the opposite direction and with a one-year lag. Consistent with the hypothesis that rebel groups gain strength after a bad harvest, there is evidence that lagged rainfall affects the number of violent incidents initiated by insurgents but not the number of incidents initiated by government forces. Our results suggest that policies aimed at mitigating the effect of climate change on agricultural production could weaken the link between climate change and civil conflict.
000205311 546__ $$aEnglish
000205311 650__ $$aInternational Development
000205311 6531_ $$aClimate Change
000205311 6531_ $$aCivil Conflict
000205311 6531_ $$aRainfall
000205311 700__ $$aCrost, Benjamin
000205311 700__ $$aDuquennois, Claire
000205311 700__ $$aFelter, Joseph H.
000205311 700__ $$aRees, Daniel I.
000205311 773__ $$d2015
000205311 8564_ $$949bca521-7a90-4c29-a380-dd4fadbad15d$$s402221$$uhttps://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/205311/files/AgEcon%20Search%20submission.pdf
000205311 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/205311
000205311 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:205311$$pGLOBAL_SET
000205311 912__ $$nSubmitted by Benjamin Crost (bencrost@illinois.edu) on 2015-05-26T15:49:48Z
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000205311 912__ $$nMade available in DSpace on 2015-05-26T15:49:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1
AgEcon Search submission.pdf: 402221 bytes, checksum: df2f2dadbcdfc46d9fea98d9ad2fba72 (MD5)
  Previous issue date: 2015
000205311 913__ $$aLicense granted by Benjamin Crost (bencrost@illinois.edu) on 2015-05-26T15:42:40Z (GMT):

<center>  <h2> Deposit Agreement </h2> </center>
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000205311 980__ $$a330
000205311 982__ $$gAgricultural and Applied Economics Association>2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California