TY  - CPAPER 
AB  - Climate change is predicted to affect global rainfall patterns, but there is mixed evidence with regard to the effect of rainfall on civil conflict. Even among researchers who argue that rainfall reduces civil conflict, there is disagreement as to the underlying mechanism. Using data from the Philippines for the period 2001-2009, we exploit seasonal variation in the relationship between rainfall and agricultural production to explore the connection between rainfall and civil conflict. In the Philippines, above-average rainfall during the wet season is harmful to agricultural production, while above-average rainfall during the dry season is beneficial. We show that the relationship between rainfall and civil conflict also exhibits seasonality, but in the opposite direction and with a one-year lag. Consistent with the hypothesis that rebel groups gain strength after a bad harvest, there is evidence that lagged rainfall affects the number of violent incidents initiated by insurgents but not the number of incidents initiated by government forces. Our results suggest that policies aimed at mitigating the effect of climate change on agricultural production could weaken the link between climate change and civil conflict.
AU  - Crost, Benjamin
AU  - Duquennois, Claire
AU  - Felter, Joseph H.
AU  - Rees, Daniel I.
DA  - 2015
DA  - 2015
DO  - 10.22004/ag.econ.205311
DO  - doi
ID  - 205311
KW  - International Development
KW  - Climate Change
KW  - Civil Conflict
KW  - Rainfall
L1  - https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/205311/files/AgEcon%20Search%20submission.pdf
L2  - https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/205311/files/AgEcon%20Search%20submission.pdf
L4  - https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/205311/files/AgEcon%20Search%20submission.pdf
LA  - eng
LA  - English
LK  - https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/205311/files/AgEcon%20Search%20submission.pdf
N2  - Climate change is predicted to affect global rainfall patterns, but there is mixed evidence with regard to the effect of rainfall on civil conflict. Even among researchers who argue that rainfall reduces civil conflict, there is disagreement as to the underlying mechanism. Using data from the Philippines for the period 2001-2009, we exploit seasonal variation in the relationship between rainfall and agricultural production to explore the connection between rainfall and civil conflict. In the Philippines, above-average rainfall during the wet season is harmful to agricultural production, while above-average rainfall during the dry season is beneficial. We show that the relationship between rainfall and civil conflict also exhibits seasonality, but in the opposite direction and with a one-year lag. Consistent with the hypothesis that rebel groups gain strength after a bad harvest, there is evidence that lagged rainfall affects the number of violent incidents initiated by insurgents but not the number of incidents initiated by government forces. Our results suggest that policies aimed at mitigating the effect of climate change on agricultural production could weaken the link between climate change and civil conflict.
PY  - 2015
PY  - 2015
T1  - Climate Change, Agricultural Production and Civil Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines
TI  - Climate Change, Agricultural Production and Civil Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines
UR  - https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/205311/files/AgEcon%20Search%20submission.pdf
Y1  - 2015
ER  -