@article{Crost:205311,
      recid = {205311},
      author = {Crost, Benjamin and Duquennois, Claire and Felter, Joseph  H. and Rees, Daniel I.},
      title = {Climate Change, Agricultural Production and Civil  Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines},
      address = {2015},
      number = {330-2016-13921},
      pages = {40},
      year = {2015},
      abstract = {Climate change is predicted to affect global rainfall  patterns, but there is mixed evidence with regard to the  effect of rainfall on civil conflict. Even among  researchers who argue that rainfall reduces civil conflict,  there is disagreement as to the underlying mechanism. Using  data from the Philippines for the period 2001-2009, we  exploit seasonal variation in the relationship between  rainfall and agricultural production to explore the  connection between rainfall and civil conflict. In the  Philippines, above-average rainfall during the wet season  is harmful to agricultural production, while above-average  rainfall during the dry season is beneficial. We show that  the relationship between rainfall and civil conflict also  exhibits seasonality, but in the opposite direction and  with a one-year lag. Consistent with the hypothesis that  rebel groups gain strength after a bad harvest, there is  evidence that lagged rainfall affects the number of violent  incidents initiated by insurgents but not the number of  incidents initiated by government forces. Our results  suggest that policies aimed at mitigating the effect of  climate change on agricultural production could weaken the  link between climate change and civil conflict.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/205311},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.205311},
}