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This research presents a set of alternative trade policy scenarios for the long term outlook of the Republic of South Africa (RSA) poultry sector. Consumer demand for poultry has risen dramatically in the past twenty years, but domestic output has not been able to keep pace, and imports have been rising. In a drive towards self-sufficiency, the South African Government has raised tariffs on higher value chicken cuts, including anti-dumping duties imposed on U.S. chicken legs in 2000. The U.S. poultry industry is demanding that the duties be lifted and is attempting to link renewal of AGOA to improved access for U.S. poultry. This analysis finds that if the duties on U.S. poultry are lowered to the MFN level of 37 percent, the U.S. could capture 35 percent of the South African market.


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