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Abstract

The formulation and evaluation of projects, is a useful tool for all those who choose to carry out investment idea. To evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of commercial production of Hass avocado in a southern region of the State of Mexico, was formulated and assessed a proposed investment by investment project methodology. For analysis, the information was obtained in 2012, year of starting the project, the horizon was seven years. It includes an analysis of commercial viability, technical, financial and economic, where it was considered only contribution of partners. In addition, we performed sensitivity analysis of 11 independent variables and their effect, under a pessimistic scenario and one optimistic relative to the baseline scenario, the behavior of the profitability indicators: NPV, IRR, RSI, ID, RB/C and PR also incorporated risk analysis on indicators NPV, IRR and RB/C. The results indicated that, under certainty and, using a MARR of 12.7%, the NPV was 15368.8 thousand pesos, the IRR of 41.9%, RSI 2.9, ID 1.9 ,RB/C 2.2 and a PR of 4.04 years. Meanwhile, low uncertainty and a pessimistic scenario, the project remains profitable. The risk analysis indicated a higher than average probability of 80% that the profitability indicators reach the value obtained. In the conditions set, indicators exceeded their critical values without and with uncertainty, so the project is profitable and suggested its implementation.

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