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Abstract

The issue of “who will grow grain in the future in China” attracts more and more attention. We estimate the structure of China’s grain producers at present, and summarize the phenomena and reasons why peasants would not like to grow grain. We analyze the agricultural population at the time of China’s total population peak around 2033, and we predict there will be a multi-producer structure of grain growing. The household contracts will be as the basis of grain operations then, and the quantity of small-scale households will decrease but still be huge. The degree of organization of rural households will increase and the role of cooperatives will be strengthened remarkably. We propose the “quality” requirements to ensure the grain production, and note different special groups will be the new forces on farming and grain growing.

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