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Abstract
We have struggled mightily with trying to understand the deeper meaning of
our assigned title. What are the critical issues linking diversification of agriculture
and international trade? Are they competitive, or even antagonistic, concepts
in the broader context of food security and agricultural development? Are they
complementary and synergistic and, if so, how? Or are they two ships passing
in the night which have little if any linkage? We share our problem in searching
for a conceptual framework for the paper with you because we are still not
sure we have got it right.
We begin with a stylized review of conventional wisdom regarding diversification
as a desirable strategy for agricultural development. We then note that much
of the agricultural development literature assumes, implicitly or explicitly, a
closed or at least closely managed economy. We then ask the question, what
happens if you open the economy? Here we use a simple three-good trade model
to explore the consequences for the agricultural sector of an open economy
setting. We look at the effects on production, consumption and trade as well as
the implications for price and income variability and overall economic performance.
We then return to the two supposed advantages of a policy of diversification
- expanded sources of growth and employment and use as a risk management
tool - and ask a basic question: in a world of economy-wide reforms, including
trade liberalization, deregulation and privatization, is agricultural diversification
a relevant policy objective? To anticipate our answer, we conclude that diversification
as a policy goal is not relevant. Those of you who came only for the
bottom line can now leave; those who want to know why are invited to stay!