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Abstract
Recent theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that risk (especially covariant risk
that is correlated across producers) may discourage both the supply of agricultural
credit and the willingness of small holders to utilize available credit and enjoy the
higher expected incomes credit could make available to them. One possible resolution
to this problem is to remove risk from the system by independently insuring it.
However, conventional (all hazard) crop insurance has in almost every instance been
rendered financially unsustainable by moral hazard and adverse selection problems.
This paper instead analyzes two index-based insurance schemes, one based on a
weather index, and a second based on measured average yields. While these index
insurance products do not protect the farmer from all risks, our econometric analysis
(which is based on data from the north coast of Peru) shows that they could have
substantial value to the producer and could also crowd-in credit supply from lenders
reluctant to carry too much covariant risk in their loan portfolios. We also show that
insurance based on measured yields is markedly superior to a weather index (for both
borrowers and lenders). We close by arguing that present and past public good failures
justify public intervention in this area, and analyze the feasibility of a public scheme to
initially underwrite the costs and uncertainties associated with area-based yield insurance.