@article{Gubanova:19045,
      recid = {19045},
      author = {Gubanova, Tatiana and Lohr, Luanne and Park, Timothy A.},
      title = {Forecasting Organic Food Prices:  Emerging Methods for  Testing and Evaluating Conditional Predictive Ability},
      address = {2005},
      number = {1269-2016-101967},
      series = {2005 Conference, St. Louis, MO, April 18-19, 2005},
      pages = {20},
      year = {2005},
      abstract = {Organic farmers, wholesalers, and retailers need price  forecasts to improve their decision-making practices. This  paper presents a methodology and protocol to select the  best performing method from several time and frequency  domain candidates. Weekly farmgate prices for organic fresh  produce are used. Forecasting methods are evaluated on the  basis of an aggregate accuracy measure and several  out-of-sample predictive ability tests. A seasonal  autoregressive method is recommended for all planning  horizons. The role of better price forecasts for the agents  who deal in less common organic produce is highlighted. A  confirmation for the claim that the organic produce  industry needs better farmgate price forecasts to grow is  provided.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/19045},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.19045},
}