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Abstract
Farmers’
decisions
about
how
much
crop
insurance
to
buy
are
not
generally
consistent
with
either
expected
profit
or
utility
maximization.
They
do
not
pick
coverage
levels
that
maximize
expected
subsidy
nor
do
they
demand
full
insurance
coverage.
In
addition,
the
absolute
size
of
farmer-‐paid
premium
seems
to
influence
the
type
of
insurance
product
farmers
buy.
Understanding
demand
drivers
for
crop
insurance
has
taken
on
new
importance
because
of
the
expanded
role
Congress
has
designated
for
crop
insurance
as
a
key
part
of
Federal
farm
policy.
By
modeling
financial
outcomes
as
gains
and
losses,
prospect
theory
offers
an
appropriate
framework
to
better
understand
farmers’
purchase
decisions.
Because
insured
events
are
best
modeled
as
continuous
random
variables,
cumulative
prospect
theory
is
used
to
find
a
theoretical
foundation
that
can
explain
farmers’
anomalous
decisions.
The
role
of
the
reference
point
that
defines
outcomes
as
either
a
gain
or
a
loss,
the
degree
of
loss
aversion,
and
the
probability
weighting
function
are
explored
under
typical
distributions
of
price,
yield,
and
revenue
for
a
corn
producer.
Choice
of
reference
points
that
are
consistent
with
farmers
using
crop
insurance
to
manage
risk
are
not
consistent
with
observed
purchase
decisions.
Choosing
the
reference
point
to
make
crop
insurance
akin
to
a
stand
alone
investment
generates
optimal
choices
that
are
consistent
with
observed
decisions
and
with
the
way
that
insurance
agents
sell
the
product.