The EU's Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28) set an overall target to source 20% of EU energy needs from renewables by 2020. As part of this target, each member state has to achieve at least 10% of their transport fuel consumption from biofuels. The Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28) and the Fuel Quality Directive (2009/30) set out sustainability criteria for biofuel production and procedures for verifying that these criteria are met. Sustainability can be more easily monitored, the greater the share of the land use impacts occur within the EU. This paper investigates two impacts of the biofuel target using the AGLINK-COSIMO model. First, we quantify the net global increase in cropped land resulting from this policy, and examine how its size and geographic changes with the elimination of EU biofuel tariffs. Second, the complex interaction between world price volatility, higher biomass demand and a global stock management is explored.


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