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Abstract
Recent structural changes in dietary patterns in Asia resulting from economic development are placing increasing pressure on the
existing production systems in the region-particularly those systems producing ruminant meat, non-ruminant meat and milk. This
has significant policy implications for the countries in the region in terms of self-sufficiency goals in these commodities and the
associated inter- and intra-regional trade opportunities in the future. Forecasts of ruminant meat, non-ruminant meat and milk
production and consumption for selected Asian countries between the years 2000 and 2010 revealed the following: China, Pakistan
and VietNam are likely to be self-sufficient with respect to ruminant meat; Malaysia is likely to continue to be a net importer of
ruminant meat; India and Malaysia will be more than self-sufficient with respect to non-ruminant meat with the converse being true
for Pakistan; and India, Laos and Pakistan will be self-sufficient with respect to milk production with the possibility of Indonesia,
Thailand and Cambodia becoming self-sufficient if the current trends continue. Structural changes in the early 1980s generally
resulted in higher average annual growth rates of production-particularly in non-ruminant meat production. Thus forecasts of
ruminant meat production and consumption by 2000 using the medium-term average annual growth rates for production present a
more favourable outcome in terms of self-sufficiency for countries such as Bangladesh, the Philippines and VietNam but a less
favourable outcome for countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Laos and India. Similar forecasts for non-ruminant meat indicated an
improvement in the long-term non-ruminant self-sufficiency estimates for most cases-particularly for Bangladesh, China and
Cambodia. Intensification and commercialisation of meat production systems have increased meat self-sufficiency in a number of
countries but often at the expense of grain self-sufficiency. Given these trends, the impact of trade liberalisation measures on
livestock production in the region and inter- and intra-regional trade of livestock commodities and grain is likely to be significant.
© 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.