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Abstract
This study assesses the performance of Botswana's traditional arable agriculture for the 1968-90 period. Growth rate and
arable sub-sector production models are specified and estimated to determine how the sub-sector performed over time, and to
capture the impact of the Accelerated Rainfed Arable Programme (ARAP). Growth rate model results indicate that cultivated
area increased by about 2.2% per year during the 1968-90 period. However, crop output remained unchanged and yields
declined by about 6.1% per year during the review period. Sub-sectoral model results reveal that cultivated area, output and
yields rose by about 27%, 120% and 74% (respectively) due to the implementation of ARAP. Therefore, ARAP was effective
in improving rural household food security and welfare. However, it is further argued that the program was unsustainable since
it involved phenomenal government outlays and has led to an unprecedented input substitution from animal traction to tractor
traction, which seems to be unjustified given the current economic fundamentals of the country's traditional arable farming.
Moreover, the results reveal loss of productivity in the sub-sector over time. Therefore, the challenge facing policy makers is
to devise new ways of reversing the current trend. © 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.