@article{Backus:173718,
      recid = {173718},
      author = {Backus, Ge B.C. and Timmer, G. Th. and Dijkhuizen, A.A.  and Eidman, V.R. and Vos, F.},
      title = {A decision support system for strategic planning on pig  farms},
      journal = {Agricultural Economics: The Journal of the International  Association of Agricultural Economists},
      address = {1995-11},
      number = {968-2016-75539},
      pages = {8},
      year = {1995},
      abstract = {This paper reported on a decision support system (DSS) for  strategic planning on pig farms. The DSS was based .
on a  stochastic simulation model of investment decisions (ISM).  ISM described a farm with one loan and one
building using  23 variables. The simulation model calculated the results  of a strategic plan for an individual pig farm
over a time  horizon of a maximum of 20 years for a given scenario. For  six distinct replacement strategies, regression
metamodels  were specified to describe the outcome of the response  variable as a function of the farm variables.  The
regression results indicated that a linear function  with only nine or ten farm variables gave a reasonable  estimate of
the results of the simulation model. Turnover  ratio, feed conversion ratio, percentage of meat, farm  size, family
expenses, and experience were the main  parameters determining future relative farm position. For  farms with high
levels of family expenditures andjor  financial leverage an economic replacement strategy was  optimal. Risk
attitudes played a minor role in the choice  of the optimal strategy, because one strategy was preferred  to another
regardless of risk preference. To analyze the  attractiveness of a chosen strategic plan for different  'what-if'
scenarios, the visual method using graphical  representations offered sufficient information. The number  of years
ahead for which the decision maker evaluated the  consequences of simulated strategic plans influenced  which
strategy was preferred.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/173718},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.173718},
}