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Abstract
Analysis of producers' and intermediaries' livestock price expectations was used to describe the market in Quetta,
the largest livestock market in the highlands of Balochistan Province, Pakistan, and to identify factors that determine
price expectations of small ruminants. A total of 4800 expected prices for sheep and goats were collected from
producers and market intermediaries at monthly intervals between January 1991 and December 1992. In addition to
the expected price of the animal, liveweight, species, sex, breed, body condition (fatness), calendar day and month
were recorded, and whether data were collected on a meat or meatless day. Monthly rainfall data were also
collected. Models of goat and sheep price expectations were built to compare the similarity of the behaviour of
producers and intermediaries.
Results indicated that producers and intermediaries expected high prices from November to January and during
religious holidays. They expected premiums and discounts related to animals' attributes. Liveweight and seasonality
had the strongest effect on prices. Rainfall in the current and previous month was positively related to seller's
expected prices suggesting that livestock are retained to take advantage of favourable grazing conditions. The models
of price expectations showed that producers adjusted expected goat prices (P ~ 0.10) for seasonality, liveweight,
body condition, age, sex and breed, while they adjusted sheep prices for seasonality and liveweight only. High
pay-offs could be expected if extension efforts focused on factors that determine sheep meat quality; however, the
retail ceiling price of meat and the lack of grading are a disincentive to work in this direction.
Seasonality of supply and demand is important in determining prices and this study provides baseline information
for market scheduling; however, scheduling of sales of transhumant pastoralists may be difficult to achieve. Further
investigation is justified to understand the gap in marketing knowledge between producers who sell in the villages
and those who sell in Quetta.