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Abstract
Chitemene slash-and-burn cultivation continues to be a dominating cropping system in
northern Zambia even after the introduction of modern technologies such as hybrid maize
and fertilizer. The rationale of farming systems evolution in northern Zambia where labour
markets have been absent or highly imperfect, has been analyzed by goal programming
based on the theories of Chayanov (1966) and Nakajima (1986). Carrying capacity estimation
is incorporated in the models and discussed in relation to the sustainability of land use
systems in the area.
The major changes in agricultural technologies in northern Zambia during this century
has been the introduction of cassava, maize and fertilizer technologies. Cassava has had the
most significant impact since the land could support much higher population densities and
since the dependence on the chitemene system no longer was critical for the survival of
peasants. By switching from finger-millet to cassava as the main staple the peasants could
reduce their total labour requirement to meet their basic food needs by as much as 40%.
The results also show that the maize-fertilizer technology has been unable to replace the
chitemene system because economic incentives to continue the system exist as long as there
is suitable woodland available. Nevertheless, the introduction of the maize-fertilizer technology
may have resulted in reduced chitemene cultivation. The rapid expansion of maize
production in northern Zambia from the late 70s to the late 80s depended critically on the
government policy of equity pricing and input subsidisation. The models predicted that the
removal of fertilizer subsidies would result in a dramatic reduction in maize production.