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Abstract
This paper analyzes the effects of urbanization on demand for cereal grains - rice,
wheat, and coarse grains - in nine Asian countries. A complete demand system (Almost
Ideal Demand System in linear form) is estimated in two stages based on aggregate time
series data from 1960 to 1988.
In the high-income countries, i.e. Japan and South Korea, urbanization was observed to
significantly reduce demand for cereal grains. In the lower-income countries, demand for
cereal grains either increased or remained the same with urbanization.
Among cereal grains, urbanization has had negative effects on demand for rice and
coarse grains, but consistently positive effects on demand for wheat. Only Japan and
Thailand among the countries studied have negative income elasticities of demand for total
cereal grains and for rice in particular. Hence, rice remains a necessity and a normal good
in most Asian countries.
Previous estimates of income elasticities of rice based on time-series aggregate data tend
to be lower than those based on cross-section household level data. When urbanization is
explicitly specified in the demand model, the estimates of income elasticities from time-series
data turn out to be consistent with those from cross-section data.