Files
Abstract
Expert analyses and forecasts of economic conditions are a compulsory basis of
any appropriate development and policy making. They are necessary for the
preparation of different expert economic and development documents as well as
the continuous adaptation of economic and development policy measures to the
changes in actual developments. The significance of forecasts is even greater if we
take into account that they direct the economies into the desired direction by
influencing the expectations and thereby the actual events. Of course, these are not
forecasts in the classic meaning of the word but rather the most probable results of
developments based on certain assumptions.
The current agricultural policies play a special role in the development of single
markets in agriculture. These policies are usually based on subsidies to agricultural
producers. In the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union, subsidies
were until the last reform in 2003 in large part tied to some agricultural
commodities and they thus distorted the free market solutions regarding the supply,
demand and product prices. The producers were encouraged to preserve
agricultural production and at the same time to produce certain commodities. They
should directly contribute to greater economic activity. The situation has only
started to change in the last few years, when market principles have also been
increasingly applied to agriculture.
We can use the production volume, the value of production, and income as
measures of economic activity. Value added, which is the mathematical difference
between the value of production in basic prices and the value of intermediate
consumption, is used in the National Accounts.