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Abstract
To meet the growing demand for freshwater, many regions have increased pumping of
groundwater in recent years, resulting in declining groundwater levels worldwide. A promising
development is technical change regarding groundwater substitutes such as desalination and
wastewater recycling. However, because these technologies are energy intensive, optimal
implementation also depends on future energy price trends. We provide an operational model for
the application to reverse-osmosis seawater desalination. With this foundation, we outline a
research agenda for extending the framework to other groundwater substitutes and for adaptation
to climate change.