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Abstract
Rapid industrial development and urbanization transfer more and more land away
from agricultural production, threatening China’s capability to feed itself. This paper
analyzes the determinants of land use by modeling arable land and sown area separately.
An inverse U-shaped relationship between land use intensity and industrialization is
explored both theoretically and empirically. The findings highlight the conflict between
the two policy goals of industrialization and grain self-sufficiency in the end. Several
policy recommendations are offered to reconcile the conflict.