@article{Mann:158107, recid = {158107}, author = {Mann, Jitendar S. and Heifner, Richard G.}, title = {The Distribution of Shortrun Commodity Price Movements}, address = {1976-03}, number = {1488-2016-123540}, series = {Technical Bulletin}, pages = {76}, year = {1976}, abstract = {The statistical properties of daily closing futures prices for nine commodities are studied. Two hypotheses are examined: Price changes are normally distributed, and prices follow a random walk process. Normality is tested by estimating kurtosis, the R/S statistic, and characteristic exponents. The Gaussian hypothesis is rejected in a large proportion of cases. Randomness is tested by using the turning point test and the phase length test. Both tests reject the random walk hypothesis.}, url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/158107}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.158107}, }