000157593 001__ 157593
000157593 005__ 20210122073350.0
000157593 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.22004/ag.econ.157593
000157593 037__ $$a634-2016-41453
000157593 041__ $$aeng
000157593 245__ $$aFactors Affecting Uganda's Bilateral Trade Flows: An Application of the Gravity Flow Model
000157593 260__ $$c2009-06
000157593 269__ $$a2009-06
000157593 300__ $$a87
000157593 336__ $$aThesis/ Dissertation
000157593 520__ $$aUganda is a fast growing economy with many sources of foreign exchange most
especially from agricultural trade exports. However, no information about Uganda’s
bilateral trade flows has been documented using the gravity flow model yet this model
lies at the centre of explaining any country’s bilateral trade flows. Identification of
Uganda’s bilateral trade flows can suggest a desirable free-trading partner and conjecture
the volume of a missing trade or unrealized bilateral trade flows. Although Muhammed
and Andrews (2008) have employed the gravity flow model in Uganda, no work has
been done to assess the determinants of Uganda’s bilateral trade flows and potential.
However, a detailed understanding of Uganda’s bilateral trade flows would provide an
additional practical framework for derivation of informed trade policy decisions to
improve the country’s trade regime. It is against this background that the Augmentedgravity
flow model was employed to study Uganda’s total bilateral trade flows and her
trade potential. The main objective of this study was to explore the determinants of
Uganda’s total bilateral trade flows and her predicted trade potential. Specifically,(i) to
determine the factors that influence total bilateral trade flows between Uganda and her
trade partners, (ii) to predict Uganda’s bilateral trade potential and performance and iii)
to determine Uganda’s degree of trade integration with her major trade partners.
Time series data of Uganda and her major trading partners (Switzerland, Netherlands,
Belgium, UK, France, South Africa and Kenya) were used for the period 1970 -2006.
The study employed real GDP, Distance, real exchange rate volatility, real exchange
misalignment, membership to COMESA, membership to the East African Community
(EAC) and having had a common colonial master as the explanatory variables with 259
observations. Feasible Generalised Least Squares (FGLS) estimation, Relative difference
x
(Rd) and Absolute difference (Ad) indices, as well as the ratio of actual to potential total
bilateral trade flows were the analytical tools employed to achieve the set objectives.
Empirical findings reveal that Uganda’s total bilateral trade flow is positively influenced
by Uganda’s real GDP, real GDP of her trading partners, membership to COMESA,
membership to the EAC and having had similar colonial masters. On the other hand,
distance, population of Uganda and that of her trade partners, real exchange rate
volatility and misalignment showed a negative influence on Uganda’s total bilateral trade
flows. Generally, Uganda has a good trade performance and can easily be integrated in
trade. However, there is still need to promote export trade and invest generously in
public infrastructure among others in order to improve her trade performance. Results
also reveal that Uganda has a high degree of trade integration (111.09 percent) with most
of her trading partners but she cannot easily integrate with UK and France markets
specifically. The lower level of trade integration with UK and France is associated with
the high non-tariff trade barriers as well as large distance between Kampala and the
respective capital cities.
000157593 650__ $$aInternational Relations/Trade
000157593 700__ $$aLubinga, Moses H.
000157593 8564_ $$9de2c31b9-0022-4df9-94d3-687c9c9c0e20$$s431665$$uhttps://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/157593/files/Moses%20Lubinga%20Thesis.pdf
000157593 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/157593
000157593 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:157593$$pGLOBAL_SET
000157593 912__ $$nSubmitted by Kirsten  Pagel (pagel076@umn.edu) on 2013-10-03T16:01:21Z
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  Previous issue date: 2009-06
000157593 913__ $$aLicense granted by Kirsten  Pagel (pagel076@umn.edu) on 2013-10-03T15:50:28Z (GMT):

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000157593 980__ $$a634
000157593 982__ $$gCollaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics&gt;Research Theses