000156981 001__ 156981
000156981 005__ 20210803125859.0
000156981 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.22004/ag.econ.156981
000156981 037__ $$a311-2016-5583
000156981 037__ $$a311-2016-5835
000156981 041__ $$afre
000156981 245__ $$aImpact du changement climatique sur la productivité des cultures céréalières dans la région de Béja (Tunisie)
000156981 260__ $$c2011-09
000156981 269__ $$a2011-09
000156981 300__ $$a11
000156981 336__ $$aJournal Article
000156981 490__ $$aVol. 6, No. 2
000156981 520__ $$aL’objectif principal de ce travail est d’analyser l’impact du changement climatique sur la
productivité des cultures céréalières dans la région de Béja, située au nord-ouest de la
Tunisie. Pour ce faire, des modèles de régression multiple ont été estimés pour trois
cultures céréalières (blé dur, blé tendre et orge). Les variables explicatives du rendement
utilisées dans l’analyse sont celles d’ordre climatique (précipitations et températures) et
le progrès technique. La période d’analyse est de 1980 à 2009. Les estimations des
modèles de régression semi-logarithmiques ont montré que les rendements des
différentes cultures céréalières dépendaient des variables climatiques et du progrès
technique. L’analyse de la projection des effets du changement climatique sur les
rendements céréaliers dans la zone d’étude, en utilisant les scénarios du modèle
HadCM3, a montré que l’impact est important à l’horizon de 2030. Cet impact sera plus
accentué pour le blé tendre. Ainsi, l’encouragement de la recherche en matière
d’identification de nouvelles techniques agricoles, la diffusion de variétés tolérantes à la
diminution des précipitations, dans les périodes critiques de croissance, et de variétés
précoces, font partie des stratégies d’adaptation pour la réduction des effets du
changement climatique sur le rendement céréalier à long terme......
000156981 520__ $$aThis article analyzes the potential impact of climate change on cereal productivity in the Béja
region of northwestern Tunisia. Multiple regression models were estimated for the cereal
crops durum wheat, bread wheat and barley, using annual data from 1980 to 2009. The yield
of each crop was used as the dependent variable, while the explanatory variables were
mainly related to the climate (precipitation and temperature) and technological progress.
The results show that yield variability is affected by climate and technological progress
variables. The projected climate change scenarios predicted by the HadCM3 model will have
a significant effect on crop yields by 2030, particularly for bread wheat. Some adaptation
strategies that could alleviate climate change effects on cereal crops yields in the long run
are the identification of new agricultural practices in this area, the widespread diffusion of varieties that can tolerate rainfall shortage during the critical periods, and the adoption of
early maturing varieties.
000156981 546__ $$aFrench
000156981 650__ $$aCrop Production/Industries
000156981 650__ $$aEnvironmental Economics and Policy
000156981 6531_ $$achangement climatique
000156981 6531_ $$acéréales
000156981 6531_ $$aproductivité
000156981 6531_ $$asérie temporelle
000156981 6531_ $$aTunisie
000156981 6531_ $$aclimate change
000156981 6531_ $$acereals
000156981 6531_ $$aproductivity
000156981 6531_ $$atime-series data
000156981 6531_ $$aTunisia
000156981 700__ $$aChebil, Ali
000156981 700__ $$aMtimet, Nadhem
000156981 700__ $$aTizaoui, Hassen
000156981 773__ $$tAfrican Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics$$j06$$k2$$dSeptember 2011
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000156981 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/156981
000156981 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:156981$$pGLOBAL_SET
000156981 912__ $$nSubmitted by Kirsten  Pagel (pagel076@umn.edu) on 2013-09-17T17:37:57Z
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  Previous issue date: 2011-09
000156981 913__ $$aLicense granted by Kirsten  Pagel (pagel076@umn.edu) on 2013-09-17T17:34:13Z (GMT):

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000156981 980__ $$a311
000156981 982__ $$gAfrican Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics>Volume 06, Number 2, September 2011