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Abstract
This study used aggregated data for fresh vegetables and fresh fruits to analyze how trade
flows in the fresh produce industry have changed under trade agreements and to assess the
potential implications to nutrition policies in the United States. The first part of the analysis
uses a Bai-Perron test to endogenously determine any structural break points in vegetable and
fruit trade movements and prices. Directed acyclic graphs and historical decompositions are
used to establish causal patterns on innovations from vector autoregression models fitted
to annual observations of trade flows, prices, and income. The results showed that trade
agreements have had significant impacts to the produce industry. Income was a major determinant
of domestic fruit production and imports.