000150696 001__ 150696
000150696 005__ 20210819131547.0
000150696 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.22004/ag.econ.150696
000150696 041__ $$aeng
000150696 245__ $$aFutures Prices in Supply Analysis Reconsidered
000150696 260__ $$c2013-06-03
000150696 269__ $$a2013-06-03
000150696 270__ $$mnph@ksu.edu$$pHendricks,   Nathan P.
000150696 270__ $$mjanzen@primal.ucdavis.edu$$pJanzen,   Joseph P.
000150696 270__ $$madsmith@ucdavis.edu$$pSmith,   Aaron
000150696 300__ $$a34
000150696 336__ $$aConference Paper/ Presentation
000150696 490__ $$aPaper
000150696 490__ $$a2190
000150696 520__ $$aAre futures prices exogenous to agricultural supply? It depends. We argue that crop
yield shocks were predictable during the 1961-2007 period because high planting-time
futures prices tended to indicate that yield would be below trend. This feature of the
data implies that regressions of production on futures prices would underestimate the
supply elasticity, i.e., endogeneity in the futures price biases the regression coefficient
down. However, this predictability has only a small effect on planted acreage. Thus,
estimating supply models with regressions of planted acreage on futures prices entails
a small endogeneity bias. Moreover, this small bias is mitigated by adding the realized
yield shock as a control variable to such a model as a proxy for the expected yield
shock. The marginal contribution of an instrumental variable to bias reduction is thus
small.
000150696 546__ $$aEnglish
000150696 650__ $$aCrop Production/Industries
000150696 650__ $$aDemand and Price Analysis
000150696 650__ $$aProduction Economics
000150696 700__ $$aHendricks,   Nathan P.
000150696 700__ $$aJanzen,   Joseph P.
000150696 700__ $$aSmith,   Aaron
000150696 773__ $$d2013
000150696 8564_ $$9c4201566-f5e3-443a-971c-5e00ed3dd3b8$$s441928$$uhttps://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/150696/files/Futures_Supply_AAEA2013.pdf
000150696 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/150696
000150696 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:150696$$pGLOBAL_SET
000150696 912__ $$nSubmitted by Elizabeth Hilber (hilb0033@umn.edu) on 2013-06-11T17:17:35Z
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  Previous issue date: 2013-06-03
000150696 913__ $$aLicense granted by Elizabeth Hilber (hilb0033@umn.edu) on 2013-06-11T17:15:27Z (GMT):

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000150696 980__ $$a325
000150696 982__ $$gAgricultural and Applied Economics Association>2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C.