Accuracy of Qualitative Forecasts of Farmland Values from the Federal Reserve's Land Value Survey

This article determines the accuracy of quarterly land value forecasts provided by bankers through the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions. Bankers’ qualitative forecasts of up, down, or no change are compared against actual, selfreported changes in land values. A large proportion of bankers forecast no change. Despite this action, aggregates of bankers’ qualitative forecasts help predict changing land values and forecast better than naı¨ve models. Thus, the forecasts in the survey are helpful in predicting land values.


Editor(s):
Marchant, Mary A.
Bosch, Darrell J.
Issue Date:
2013-02
Publication Type:
Journal Article
DOI and Other Identifiers:
Record Identifier:
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/143661
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/143661
Published in:
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 45, 1
Page range:
159-170
Total Pages:
12
JEL Codes:
G21; Q14




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2020-10-28

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