Accuracy of Qualitative Forecasts of Farmland Values from the Federal Reserve's Land Value Survey

This article determines the accuracy of quarterly land value forecasts provided by bankers through the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions. Bankers’ qualitative forecasts of up, down, or no change are compared against actual, selfreported changes in land values. A large proportion of bankers forecast no change. Despite this action, aggregates of bankers’ qualitative forecasts help predict changing land values and forecast better than naı¨ve models. Thus, the forecasts in the survey are helpful in predicting land values.