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Abstract
This study examines changes in Nashville’s labor market following
the April 16, 1998 tornado. Specifically, the study focuses on whether or
not employment growth experienced a change in mean around the time
of the tornado. A time series intervention model that allows for timevarying
variance is used to examine the labor market dynamics associated
with the impact of the tornado and the ensuing recovery process.
The analysis of employment growth is conducted at the aggregate (overall)
level as well as for seven industrial sectors. The empirical findings
may be summarized as follows. The aggregate Nashville labor market,
along with manufacturing, service, transportation and public utilities,
and wholesale, retail trade sectors, experienced a more stable employment
growth rate in the post-tornado period. Employment in the construction
and mining and government sectors exhibited no evidence of
change between the pre- and post-tornado periods. Employment growth
in the finance, insurance, and real estate sector was lower in the posttornado
period than in the pre-tornado period, while employment
growth in the transportation and public utilities sector significantly increased
in the period following the tornado.