@article{Gelan:126800,
      recid = {126800},
      author = {Gelan, Ayele and Engida, Ermias and Caria, A. Stefano and  Karugia, Joseph Thuo},
      title = {The Role of Livestock In the Ethiopian Economy: Policy  Analysis Using A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium  Model for Ethiopia},
      address = {2012},
      number = {1007-2016-79672},
      year = {2012},
      abstract = {Researchers and policymakers increasingly recognize that  the livestock sector supports the
livelihoods of a large  proportion of rural households in most African countries  and may have
an important role to play in rural poverty  reduction strategies. In order to develop this  insight,
economywide models should capture both the  biological, dynamic relationships between the
stocks and  flows of livestock and the economic linkages between the  sector and the rest of
the economy. We extend an existing  dynamic recursive general equilibrium model for  the
Ethiopian economy which better models the livestock  sector. A separate herd dynamics
module enables us to  specify stock-flow relationship, distinguishing between the  capital role
of livestock and the flow of livestock  products. We also improve the underlying system of
economic  accounts, to better capture draft power and breeding  stocks. We use this model to
simulate separate, realistic  Total Factor Productivity (TFP) shocks to three  agricultural
subsectors—cereals, cash crops, and  livestock—and compare them with a baseline
scenario  replicating the 1998 to 2007 productivity trends, following  Dorosh and Thurlow
(2009) who have examined CAADP  productivity scenarios. The results we obtain reveal  the
important role of the livestock sector in increasing  various measures of GDP and combating
food insecurity.  Agricultural GDP and overall GDP growth levels achieved in  the livestock
TFP shock scenario are very similar to those  achieved in the cereal TFP shock scenario,
unlike what  previously thought. Importantly, as factors are dynamically  re-allocated between
agricultural activities, our analysis  highlights the inefficiency of strategies focusing on  cereal
sector development alone. Moreover, livestock sector  productivity growth leads to greater
factor income growth,  particularly labor income, than in the other simulations.  Labor is the
predominant asset of poor households and hence  large income gains and food consumption
growth are realized  under the livestock-led scenario.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/126800},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.126800},
}