000125091 001__ 125091 000125091 005__ 20210819132632.0 000125091 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.22004/ag.econ.125091 000125091 037__ $$a413-2016-25980 000125091 041__ $$aeng 000125091 245__ $$aGlobal Population Forecast Errors, Economic Performance and Food Demand: Preliminary Simulations 000125091 260__ $$c2002-02 000125091 269__ $$a2002-02 000125091 300__ $$a15 000125091 336__ $$aConference Paper/ Presentation 000125091 520__ $$aThe recent analysis of global population forecasts of the past 30 years by the US National Academy of Sciences (Bongaarts and Bulatao, 2000) confirms that errors have been considerable and that population forecasts have generally been upward-biased. We adapt a standard global economic model to estimate the implications of the global and regional population forecast errors suggested by this study, via their demographic and income effects, for the performance of the global economy and the composition of global food demand. The model is “GTAP-Dyn”, a recursively dynamic, applied general equilibrium model of the world economy (Ianchovichina and McDougall, 2000). The results indicate that slower than forecast population (and hence labour force) growth causes slower growth in Australia’s overall economy and in its agricultural, food and minerals sectors in particular. When the population growth slowdown is restricted to developing countries, the overall effects on Australia are smaller but there is a substantial reallocation of resources away from agriculture, food production and other natural resource based industries in favour of manufactures. 000125091 546__ $$aEnglish 000125091 650__ $$aDemand and Price Analysis 000125091 650__ $$aFood Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety 000125091 700__ $$aGraham, Brett 000125091 700__ $$aTyers, Rodney 000125091 8564_ $$91714ad36-b3f1-42a7-8ede-6a3b836a0bc4$$s239846$$uhttps://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/125091/files/Graham.pdf 000125091 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/125091 000125091 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:125091$$pGLOBAL_SET 000125091 912__ $$nSubmitted by Kirsten Olson (olso5834@umn.edu) on 2012-06-08T18:37:33Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Graham.pdf: 239846 bytes, checksum: e14fd4e8413076c43a3b7d8ba7322c22 (MD5) 000125091 912__ $$nMade available in DSpace on 2012-06-08T18:37:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Graham.pdf: 239846 bytes, checksum: e14fd4e8413076c43a3b7d8ba7322c22 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2002-02 000125091 913__ $$aLicense granted by Kirsten Olson (olso5834@umn.edu) on 2012-06-08T18:35:03Z (GMT): <center> <h2> Deposit Agreement </h2> </center> I represent that I am the creator of the digital material identified herein (&ldquo;Work&rdquo;). I represent that the work is original and that I either own all rights of copyright or have the right to deposit the copy in a digital archive such as AgEcon Search. I represent that in regard to any non-original material included in the Work I have secured written permission of the copyright owner (s) for this use or believe this use is allowed by law. I further represent that I have included all appropriate credits and attributions. I hereby grant the Regents of the University of Minnesota (&ldquo;University&rdquo;), through AgEcon Search, a non-exclusive right to access, reproduce, and distribute the Work, in whole or in part, for the purposes of security, preservation, and perpetual access. I grant the University a limited, non-exclusive right to make derivative works for the purpose of migrating the Work to other media or formats in order to preserve access to the Work. I do not transfer or intend to transfer any right of copyright or other intellectual property to the University. If the Deposit Agreement is executed by the Author�s Representative, the Representative shall separately execute the following representation: I represent that I am authorized by the Author to execute this Deposit Agreement on behalf of the Author. 000125091 980__ $$a413 000125091 982__ $$gAustralian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society>2002 Conference (46th), February 13-15, 2002, Canberra, Australia