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000125091 005__ 20210819132632.0
000125091 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.22004/ag.econ.125091
000125091 037__ $$a413-2016-25980
000125091 041__ $$aeng
000125091 245__ $$aGlobal Population Forecast Errors, Economic Performance and Food Demand: Preliminary Simulations
000125091 260__ $$c2002-02
000125091 269__ $$a2002-02
000125091 300__ $$a15
000125091 336__ $$aConference Paper/ Presentation
000125091 520__ $$aThe recent analysis of global population forecasts of the past 30 years by the US National Academy of Sciences (Bongaarts and Bulatao, 2000) confirms that errors have been considerable and that population forecasts have generally been upward-biased. We adapt a standard global economic model to estimate the implications of the global and regional population forecast errors suggested by this study, via their demographic and income effects, for the performance of the global economy and the composition of global food demand. The model is “GTAP-Dyn”, a recursively dynamic, applied general equilibrium model of the world economy (Ianchovichina and McDougall, 2000). The results indicate that slower than forecast population (and hence labour force) growth causes slower growth in Australia’s overall economy and in its agricultural, food and minerals sectors in particular. When the population growth slowdown is restricted to developing countries, the overall effects on Australia are smaller but there is a substantial reallocation of resources away from agriculture, food production and other natural resource based industries in favour of manufactures.
000125091 546__ $$aEnglish
000125091 650__ $$aDemand and Price Analysis
000125091 650__ $$aFood Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety
000125091 700__ $$aGraham, Brett
000125091 700__ $$aTyers, Rodney
000125091 8564_ $$91714ad36-b3f1-42a7-8ede-6a3b836a0bc4$$s239846$$uhttps://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/125091/files/Graham.pdf
000125091 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/125091
000125091 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:125091$$pGLOBAL_SET
000125091 912__ $$nSubmitted by Kirsten Olson (olso5834@umn.edu) on 2012-06-08T18:37:33Z
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  Previous issue date: 2002-02
000125091 913__ $$aLicense granted by Kirsten Olson (olso5834@umn.edu) on 2012-06-08T18:35:03Z (GMT):

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000125091 980__ $$a413
000125091 982__ $$gAustralian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society>2002 Conference (46th), February 13-15, 2002, Canberra, Australia