@article{Graham:125091,
      recid = {125091},
      author = {Graham, Brett and Tyers, Rodney},
      title = {Global Population Forecast Errors, Economic Performance  and Food Demand: Preliminary Simulations},
      address = {2002-02},
      number = {413-2016-25980},
      pages = {15},
      year = {2002},
      abstract = {The recent analysis of global population forecasts of the  past 30 years by the US National Academy of Sciences  (Bongaarts and Bulatao, 2000) confirms that errors have  been considerable and that population forecasts have  generally been upward-biased. We adapt a standard global  economic model to estimate the implications of the global  and regional population forecast errors suggested by this  study, via their demographic and income effects, for the  performance of the global economy and the composition of  global food demand. The model is “GTAP-Dyn”, a recursively  dynamic, applied general equilibrium model of the world  economy (Ianchovichina and McDougall, 2000). The results  indicate that slower than forecast population (and hence  labour force) growth causes slower growth in Australia’s  overall economy and in its agricultural, food and minerals  sectors in particular. When the population growth slowdown  is restricted to developing countries, the overall effects  on Australia are smaller but there is a substantial  reallocation of resources away from agriculture, food  production and other natural resource based industries in  favour of manufactures.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/125091},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.125091},
}