@article{Monjardino:124976,
      recid = {124976},
      author = {Monjardino, Marta and McBeath, T. and Brennan, Lisa E. and  Llewellyn, Rick S.},
      title = {Are farmers in low-rainfall cropping regions  under-fertilizing? An Australian case-study},
      address = {2012},
      number = {1007-2016-79623},
      pages = {27},
      year = {2012},
      abstract = {Cropping in low-rainfall regions can be risky business.  Farms are often characterized by high
climatic and spatial  variability, while input prices, particularly nitrogen (N)  fertilisers, are
rising steadily relative to grain prices.  Consequently, in anticipation of having a poor  season,
farmers minimize downside-risk, which is perceived  as far more likely than upside gain in
such risky  environments, by applying fixed low rates of N to their  cereal crops. However,
farmers might benefit from using  higher fertiliser rates and adjusting the rate of N  fertiliser
applied during the growing season, because if  seasons are favourable the crop demands more
nutrients.  Using a combination of crop simulation, probability theory,  profit function and
finance techniques to quantify the  trade-offs between magnitude and variability in net  returns,
we found that the use of higher N rates (relative  to the region’s average) can reduce risk in a
highly  variable dryland environment like the Mallee region in  south-eastern Australia.
Overall, typically risk-averse  Mallee farmers with low starting N seem likely to benefit  from
increasing their N rates to up to 60 kg N ha-1 from  the 15 kg N ha-1 currently applied, with
less risk-averse  farmers being likely do this by adopting a more tactical  approach to N
fertilisation.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/124976},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.124976},
}