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Abstract
Since passage of the Personal Responsibility and Reconciliation Act of 1996 (PRWORA),
states have the responsibility of developing and implementing their own Temporary
Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) programs to operate in tandem with the Federal Food
Stamp Program (FSP). The context for this welfare reform included a booming economy and
broad public perception that welfare programs severely reduce the work effort of recipients.
This study focuses on a period when the economy was in recession and investigates how the
old cash welfare program, AFDC, and the FSP affected labor supply (weekly hours of work)
decisions for single mothers, the majority of welfare recipients, across the rural-urban
continuum. The central question is how the labor supply of single mothers responded to the
availability of AFDC and FSP benefits, respectively, and whether their responses differed
depending upon whether they reside in rural or urban areas.
To answer this question, we utilize data from a special in-house Census Bureau extract from
the Survey of Income and Program Participation with accurate rural and urban sub samples to
estimate our three equations model, one for labor supply and one each for AFDC and FSP
participation. The econometric model involves two linked components. The first is
Bivariate Probit estimation of the AFDC and FSP participation decisions to account for
possible correlation between the error terms of the participation equations. The participation
estimates are linked to the second component, estimation of the labor supply equation, due to
the endogeneity of the participation decisions and the possibility of bivariate selection.
Single mothers may and do choose participation in either or both AFDC and the FSP and
unobserved characteristics associated with those participation choices are likely to be
negatively correlated with unobserved factors affecting labor supply. The participation
estimates are used to calculate bivariate sample selection correction factors added as
auxiliary variables in the labor supply equation. Because wages play important roles in all
three equations, yet are observed only for women who work, we first impute wages based
upon Heckman’s two-step sample selection bias correction procedure for rural and urban sub
samples. The results show that bivariate rather than univariate participation estimation is
necessary. The bivariate selection corrections in the labor supply equations, however, yield
mixed results. Nonetheless, the estimated model reasonably explains linkages between
AFDC and FSP programs and labor supply.
The results show that increasing the AFDC tax on earnings by 10 percent generates almost
identical average increases in labor supply by rural and urban single mothers, 0.12 and 0.11
hours per week, respectively. Their responses are also similar with respect to a 10 percent
increase in the FSP earnings tax, 0.03 and 0.04 hours per week on average. A 10 percent
increase in AFDC and FSP unearned income tax rates yield average rural labor supply
increases of 0.11 and 0.02 hours per week, respectively, and corresponding urban responses
of 0.01 and –0.02 hours per week. With one exception, rural and urban single mothers
reduce hours of work as expected when AFDC and FSP guaranteed benefits increase by 10
percent. For the AFDC benefit increase, rural single mothers reduce labor supply less on
average than do urban single mothers, -0.08 vs. -0.12 hours per week. The FSP benefit
increase generates the largest reduction in labor supply, -0.35 hours per week for rural single
mothers, compared to a labor supply increase of 0.14 hours per week by urban single
mothers.