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Abstract

The current paper investigates the medium term impact of climate changes on EU agriculture. We employ CAPRI partial equilibrium modelling framework. The results indicate that within the EU, there will be both winners and losers, with some regions benefitting from climate change, while other regions suffering losses in production and welfare. In general, there are relatively small market effects at the EU aggregate. For example, the value of total agricultural income, land use and welfare change by approximately between -0.3% and 2%. However, there is a stronger impact at regional level with the effects increase by a factor higher than 10 relative to the aggregate EU impacts. The price adjustments reduce the response of agricultural sector to climate change in particular with respect to production and income changes.

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