@article{Himics:122531,
      recid = {122531},
      author = {Himics, Mihaly and Van Doorslaer, Benjamin and Ciaian,  Pavel and Shrestha, Shailesh},
      title = {Increasing volatility of input costs in the EU  agriculture},
      address = {2012-02-23},
      number = {706-2016-48371},
      pages = {18},
      month = {Feb},
      year = {2012},
      abstract = {In this paper the impact of possible input cost  developments on the EU agriculture is analysed under  ceteris paribus conditions. Two scenarios are developed  with the partial equilibrium model CAPRI. The scenarios  assume symmetric input price changes in positive and  negative directions around a projected baseline in year  2020. The magnitude of the input price changes are based on  observed volatility. To measure the volatility, the annual  time-series of the CoCo database were analysed, which  contains input cost estimates for a multitude of  agricultural activities and cost categories at the  geographical level of the EU countries.
Our results suggest  that the uncertainty in input cost development has a strong  potential to affect commodity market balances and farm  incomes. There is an ongoing discussion about possible  policy measures to mitigate the negative impacts of price  volatility on farm incomes. This study contributes to this  discussion by estimating a share of 17 billion euros of EU  agricultural income being put on risk every year. The  analysis also identifies vulnerable regions and production  technologies that are particularly affected by input price  instability. It remains for further research to perform a  systematic sensitivity analysis in order to explore the  impact of input cost volatility fully on the model  outcomes.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/122531},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.122531},
}