@article{Fan:118013,
      recid = {118013},
      author = {Fan, Shenggen and Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C.},
      title = {Why projections on China's future food supply and demand  differ},
      journal = {Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics},
      address = {1997},
      number = {428-2016-27695},
      pages = {22},
      year = {1997},
      abstract = {This article analyses the macroeconomic assumptions,  demand and supply
parameters, and structures of the models  used in projecting China's future food
supply, demand and  trade. Projections vary greatly, from China being  self-
sufficient in grain to being a net importer of 369  million metric tons of grain in
2030. The differences stem  mainly from the approaches chosen to model China's
grain  production and, in particular, the combined effects of land  decline and yield
growth. The article also points out  improvements needed in future work on
modelling China's  grain economy, which include accounting for the links  between
agriculture and other sectors, technical change in  the livestock industry and infra-
structure constraints on  grain imports.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/118013},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.118013},
}