@article{Nott:11654,
      recid = {11654},
      author = {Nott, Sherrill B. and Wolf, Christopher A.},
      title = {DAIRY FARM DECISIONS ON HOW TO PROCEED IN THE FACE OF TB},
      address = {2000},
      number = {1099-2016-89031},
      series = {Staff Paper 2000-39},
      pages = {19},
      year = {2000},
      abstract = {By early 2000, the number of commercial livestock herds in  Michigan with bovine tuberculosis (TB) had increased to the  point that policy makers were considering alternative ways  to enable farmers to continue production with access to  markets while eliminating TB and protecting the public's  
health.  If at least one animal on a farm is found to have  TB, a farmer currently has two choices about the future  assuming the goal is to stay in the livestock business.   Alternative one is depopulation; all animals are removed to  a state facility, slaughtered, and tested.  A new herd may  be purchased after a state supervised clean up and waiting  period is completed; this may take one year.  Alternative  two is test and remove; a recurring series of testing is  initiated, but only individual reactor or suspect animals  are removed for slaughter and further testing.   In both  
alternatives, regulations allow indemnity payments to be  made to the owner by the state and federal  governments.

This paper analyzes the financial impact of  each alternative on two dairy benchmark farms.  One has 75  milk cows, the other 150.  Monthly cash flow projections  for two years were made using FINFLO.  A base projection  was compared to the above alternatives assuming constant  herd size (except for 
the impact of TB) and constant price  levels.  The main goal was to illustrate how a farmer might  analyze the alternatives if faced with TB infected  animals.	The 75 cow farm started with $8,309 of cash on  January 1, 2000.  The base projections resulted in cash of  $34,230 by December 31, 2001.  Ending cash after two years  for depopulation or test and remove were $16,095 and  $15,801, respectively.  The 75 cow farm started with a net  worth of $624,940 on January 1, 2000.  The base projection  increased net worth by $66,542 over the two years.  For  depopulation or test and remove, the change in net worth by  the end of 2001 was $-15,345 and $48,256, respectively.	The  150 cow farm started with $30,659 of cash on January 1,  2000. The base projections resulted in cash of $40,437 by  December 31, 2001.  Ending cash after two years for  depopulation or test and remove were $2,972 and $13,290,  respectively.  The 150 cow farm started with a net worth of  $1,122,940 on January 1, 2000.  The base projection  increased net worth by $31,765 over the two years.  For  depopulation or test and remove, the 
change in net worth  by the end of 2001 was $-95,904 and $-1,925,  respectively.	Benchmark model farms will not exactly fit  any particular farm.  Each owner faced with TB should make  their own projections using their unique 
situation and  timing of cash flows.  Once an alternative is adopted,  monthly financial comparison sheets can be helpful in  managing the transition to TB free status.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/11654},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.11654},
}