TY  - CPAPER 
AB  - This paper investigates the medium- and long-term growth effects of the global financial crises on Low-Income Countries (LICs). Using several methodological approaches, including impulse response function analysis, growth spells techniques and panel regressions, we show that external demand (ED) shocks are not historically associated with sharp declines in output growth. Given existing evidence that LICs were primarily impacted by such a shock in the global financial crisis, our analysis provides some optimism on the chances that LICs will avoid a protracted period of slow growth. However, we also show that there seem to be persistent output losses associated with ED shocks in the medium-run. In terms of policy implications, our analysis provides evidence that countries with lower deficits, lower debt, more flexible exchange rate regimes, and a higher stock of international reserves are more likely to dampen the effects of an ED shock on growth.
AU  - Berg, Andrew
AU  - Papageorgiou, Chris
AU  - Pattillo, Catherine
AU  - Spatafora, Nikola
DA  - 2011
DA  - 2011
DO  - 10.22004/ag.econ.115524
DO  - doi
ID  - 115524
KW  - Agribusiness
KW  - Global financial crisis
KW  - external shocks
KW  - low-income countries
KW  - medium- and long-term growth
KW  - impulse response functions
KW  - growth spells
KW  - panel growth regressions
L1  - https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/115524/files/Spatafora_IAMO_Forum_2011.pdf
L2  - https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/115524/files/Spatafora_IAMO_Forum_2011.pdf
L4  - https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/115524/files/Spatafora_IAMO_Forum_2011.pdf
LA  - eng
LA  - English
LK  - https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/115524/files/Spatafora_IAMO_Forum_2011.pdf
N2  - This paper investigates the medium- and long-term growth effects of the global financial crises on Low-Income Countries (LICs). Using several methodological approaches, including impulse response function analysis, growth spells techniques and panel regressions, we show that external demand (ED) shocks are not historically associated with sharp declines in output growth. Given existing evidence that LICs were primarily impacted by such a shock in the global financial crisis, our analysis provides some optimism on the chances that LICs will avoid a protracted period of slow growth. However, we also show that there seem to be persistent output losses associated with ED shocks in the medium-run. In terms of policy implications, our analysis provides evidence that countries with lower deficits, lower debt, more flexible exchange rate regimes, and a higher stock of international reserves are more likely to dampen the effects of an ED shock on growth.
PY  - 2011
PY  - 2011
T1  - The End of an Era? The Medium- and Long-Term Effects of the Global Crisis on Growth in Low-Income Countries
TI  - The End of an Era? The Medium- and Long-Term Effects of the Global Crisis on Growth in Low-Income Countries
UR  - https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/115524/files/Spatafora_IAMO_Forum_2011.pdf
Y1  - 2011
ER  -